Putin Biden Ukraine

Orosz-ukrán háború: egy utolsó fáradt kísérlet a 20. századi status quo helyreállítására

A második világháborúval kialakult kétpólusú világrend, melynek az egyik pólusa az Egyesült Államok, míg a másik a Szovjetunió volt, az 1990-es évekre, a Szovjetunió gazdasági elgyengülésével, majd felbomlásával egypólusúvá vált. Az Egyesült Államok elhibázott gazdaság- és külpolitikája eredményeként azonban ez a hegemónia alig tartott néhány évig. A 21. század elejére a világban számtalan kisebb-nagyobb hatalmi központ jött létre, melyek közül a legnagyobbak, elsősorban Kína teljesen független hatalmi politikát képes folytatni.

Az egykori KGB-tisztet, Vlagyimir Vlagyimirovics Putyint az akkor még szinte teljhatalmú amerikai titkosszolgálati rendszer azért engedte Oroszország elnöki székébe, mert az amerikai külpolitika nagyobb kockázatnak látta a Jelcin alatt széteső, kiszámíthatatlan, de jelentős atomarzenállal rendelkező Oroszországot, mint egy erős vezető alatt rendberakott és esetleg újra felemelkedő orosz birodalmat. Már csak azért is, mert a nagyrészt a hidegháborúban szocializálódott apparátusnak sokkal komfortosabbnak tűnt újra a már jól ismert oroszokkal küzdeni, mint mindenféle ismeretlen kisebb-nagyobb hatalmat kiismerni. A terv ugyan nem vált be, de annyit elértek, hogy az elmúlt két évtizedben globális katonai szereplőként egyetlen új hatalom sem jelent meg.

A 2004-ben nyilvánvalóan amerikai és angol titkosszolgálati beavatkozással Ukrajnában szervezett narancsos forradalommal Ukrajnát kivonták Moszkva ellenőrzése alól és potenciális NATO-tagállamjelölté tették. Erre Putyin tíz évvel később elfoglalta a Krím-félszigetet.

Feltehetőleg erre reagált 2016-ban a NATO és döntött, hogy Romániában és Lengyelországban rakétavédelmi rendszereket telepítenek. Ez valójában semmi másra nem szolgált, mint Oroszország stratégiai erejének meggyengítésére, azaz ballisztikus rakétaerejének hatástalanítására, mely lépés következményeinek kiszámítása nem igényelt már akkor sem különösebb zsenialitást. Nyilvánvaló volt, hogy Putyin ezt nem nézheti karba tett kézzel.

A két keleti, Ukrajnához tartozó tartományban kirobbantott lázadás, majd annak katonai támogatása és most Ukrajna lerohanása nem érte, nem érhette meglepetésként az amerikai kormányzatot.

Az erre adott gazdasági/pénzügyi válaszlépés, hogy Oroszországot kizárják a SWIFT-rendszerből, azaz gyakorlatilag Iránnal teszik egy lapra, teljesen egyértelművé teszik az analógiát.

Az amerikai külpolitikai stratégia újra akarja játszani a hidegháborút, ami alatt az Egyesült Államok soha nem látott virágzásnak indult. Azt gondolják, hogy ha újra végig lehet menni a katonailag erős orosz birodalom gazdasági tönkretételén, ha el lehet újra játszani, hogy mi vagyunk a szabad világ őre, aki megvédelmezi a gonosz, militáns, expanzív orosz birodalomtól a világot, akkor majd Kína, India, Pakisztán, Brazília, Indonézia és a többi feltörekvő hatalom jelentősége nagyságrendileg csökken.

Ez folytatása annak a tényeket szelektíven figyelembe vevő vágyvezérelt amerikai politikának, hogy akárhogy is, de Amerika világelsősége megkérdőjelezhetetlen.

Oroszország SWIFT-rendszerből történő kizárásának hatásai között biztosan jelen van, hogy az orosz pénzügyi rendszer kénytelen lesz átállni a Kínán és Dubajon keresztül történő tranzakciókra. Ez Kína amúgy is elképesztő jelentőségét tovább növeli, ugyanakkor Európát, elsősorban Németországot komoly gazdasági válsággal fenyegeti.

Németország válsága egyenlő az Európai Unió válságával, ami az amúgy is recsegő-ropogó intézményi keretet akár szét is feszítheti. Ha az elsősorban Németországból származó uniós pénzek, melyek a keleti tagállamok megélhetésének alapjai, áramlása megszűnik, akkor tényleg felvetődik a kérdés, hogy minek az EU tagjának maradni.

Hiszen az EU-belépéssel a keleti tagállamok gyakorlatilag átadták piacaikat a német és egyéb gazdasági szereplőknek az infrastrukturális támogatás fejében. Ha megszűnik a támogatás, akkor értelmetlenné válik az uniós tagság.

A 20. századi status quo helyreállítására tett meglehetősen abszurd kísérletnek az áldozata tehát Európa lehet. Ebben most az Egyesült Államok és Oroszország felelőssége egyaránt világtörténelmi.

Csorja Gergely

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